Technosocial Predictive Analytics Initiative
The Technosocial Predictive Analytics Initiative (TPAI) is taking the next steps to addressing complex, interwoven issues with highly integrated, innovative models to help analysts and policy makers identify and counter strategic surprise.
TPAI supports a multi-perspective approach to predictive analysis through integrated reasoning, drawing knowledge insights from both the natural and social sciences. More specifically, Technosocial Predictive Analytics will define, develop, and evaluate novel modeling algorithms that integrate domain knowledge about interacting physical and human factors. In so doing, Technosocial Predictive Analytics will enable its modeling algorithms with ancillary capabilities aimed at acquiring knowledge inputs and enhancing cognitive access.
Knowledge inputs will inform technosocial modeling with subject matter expertise and evidence about natural, technical, individual and organizational factors germane to the application domains of interest. This conceptualization recognizes that issues of interest—such as counter-terrorism, nuclear non-proliferation, and global environmental change—comprise dynamic and interdependent human and physical components. Cognitive enhancement will enable the user to interact with the outcomes of the modeling process (i.e., predictions) so as to determine what matters and what can be influenced productively.
