About Technosocial Predictive Analytics
The ability to estimate the likelihood of future events based on current and historical data is paramount to the decision-making processes of our government agencies in addressing challenges to the security, defense, sustainable growth, and health of our nation.
There now is increased awareness among subject-matter experts, analysts, and decision makers that a combined understanding of interacting physical and human factors is essential in estimating plausible futures for real-world scenarios. The relevance of such a multi-perspective approach to predictive analysis is pervasive across mission areas: national security, energy security and reliability, and environmental protection and scientific discovery.
The Technosocial Predictive Analytics Initiative endeavors to support a multi-perspective approach to predictive analysis through integrated reasoning with knowledge insights from both the natural and social sciences. More specifically, Technosocial Predictive Analytics will define, develop, and evaluate novel modeling algorithms that integrate domain knowledge about interacting physical and human factors. In so doing, Technosocial Predictive Analytics will combine expertise from the natural and social sciences, and enable its modeling algorithms with ancillary capabilities aimed at procuring knowledge inputs and enhancing cognitive access. The Technosocial Predictive Analytics Initiative is organized in three R&D areas:
- Technosocial Modeling
- Projects in the Technosocial Modeling research and development area will develop, implement, and evaluate new mathematical and statistical methods in predictive modeling for real-world scenarios.
- Knowledge Inputs
- Projects in the Knowledge Inputs research and development area will
- leverage computer aided content/signal extraction and analysis for marshaling actionable evidence
- use knowledge-representation methods to encapsulate and access expert knowledge and marshaled evidence.
- Projects in the Knowledge Inputs research and development area will
- Cognitive Enhancement
- Projects in the Cognitive Enhancement research and development area will exploit visual interactivity and enhanced cognition techniques within a serious gaming paradigm to empower the user in the modeling task.
Currently we are targeting three application focus areas:
- Effects of Global Climate Change on Homeland Security and Defense
- Counterterrorism
- Nonproliferation
The Initiative began its activities in FY08 with five projects
- Vulnerability of Food Security and Energy Infrastructures to Climate Change and Terrorism
- Dynamic Scenarios for Organizations in Infrastructures
- Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Power Grids and Its Wider Implications on National Security
- Knowledge Encapsulation Framework: A Framework for Knowledge Inputs for Technosocial Predictive Analytics
- Development of Serious Gaming Technology for Cognitive Enhancement in Predictive Analytics.
Two more activities were started FY09